高库存打压之下 煤价何时见底？Under the pressure of high inventories, when will coal prices bottom?

近期，中下游环节库存持续高企，电煤消费又处于季节性低位，下游拿货紧迫性和积极性不高，港口市场交易氛围依然清冷。环渤海港口疏港压力增大，短时迫使贸易商加快抛货离场，促使港口煤价总体延续阴跌回调态势。目前，港口煤价已跌破830元/吨。

终端电厂库存仍在高位，无论统调电厂、铁路直达电厂，还是重点电厂、沿海电厂存煤全部都在高位。下游用户多保持观望态度，询货问价不佳；大部分电厂补库以长协为主，对市场煤基本没有采购需求，少量刚需也在压价采购。目前，大秦线、唐呼线运力充足，车流稳定，叠加恶劣天气封航，使得环渤海港口库存节节高攀，部分港口出现场地、垛位紧张现象，疏港压力加大；贸易商悲观情绪发酵，报价下浮幅度扩大。本周，有全国范围内的冷空气南下，会有阶段性降温，或许有部分贸易商挺价带来价格稍稳，但煤价回落的大趋势不变，预计港口煤价还有5-10元/吨的下跌空间；在环渤海港口库存不能有效下降之前，港口煤价仍会延续弱稳小跌走势。

近两个月，铁路发运煤炭数量仍处于高位，环渤海港口库存持续累积，电厂日耗提升缓慢，库存较高，不能消化高库存；而冬季水泥需求也逐步减弱，对市场煤采购数量减少。环渤海港口市场延续阴跌走势，贸易商报价小幅下跌，下游需求略增加，询价仍以压价还盘为主，较难成交。值得注意的是，寒潮正在自西向东影响我国，我国大部分地区气温由前期偏高转为略偏低或接近常年同期，下游取暖用电需求存在较大的提升预期，沿海八省电厂日耗突破200万吨是大概率的事。但由于社会各环节库存及长协、进口等低价资源供应尚处于历年高位水平，电厂处于消耗库存阶段，造成港口煤价无上涨支撑。

正值冬季前半程，下游观望为主，询货问价冷清，实际成交情况不佳；下游电厂可用库存尚高，采购意愿依然消极。唯一利好就是，环渤海港口到港和卖方持货成本较高，且随着气温渐冷，电煤采购和消费需求也存增长预期；等到中小贸易商清库离场、压力减轻后，主力贸易商和矿企的市场惜售挺价情绪可能会被重燃，带动煤价跌幅收窄，甚至会小幅反弹。

Recently, the inventory of the middle and downstream links has continued to be high, the consumption of thermal coal is at a seasonal low, the urgency and enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods are not high, and the trading atmosphere of the port market is still cold. The pressure on the Bohai Rim ports to evacuate the port has increased, forcing traders to speed up the departure of goods in a short period of time, prompting the port coal prices to continue to decline and pull back in general. At present, the port coal price has fallen below 830 RMB/ton.

The inventory of terminal power plants is still at a high level, whether it is a unified power plant, a direct railway power plant, a key power plant, or a coastal power plant, all of which are at a high level. Downstream users mostly maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and the inquiry price is not good; Most of the power plants replenish the warehouse mainly in long-term agreements, and there is basically no procurement demand for market coal, and a small amount of rigid demand is also purchased at a reduced price. At present, the Daqin Line and Tanghu Line have sufficient capacity, stable traffic flow, and the closure of navigation in bad weather, which makes the inventory of Bohai Rim ports continue to rise, and some ports have a shortage of sites and stacks, and the pressure on port dredging has increased; Traders' pessimism fermented, and the decline in quotations expanded. This week, there is a nationwide cold air southward, there will be a phased cooling, perhaps some traders to bring the price to a little stable, but the general trend of coal prices falling remains unchanged, it is expected that the port coal price will have 5-10 RMB/ton of room to fall; Before the inventory of the Bohai Rim port cannot be effectively reduced, the port coal price will continue to decline weakly.

In the past two months, the amount of coal shipped by railway is still at a high level, the inventory of the Bohai Rim port continues to accumulate, the daily consumption of power plants has increased slowly, and the inventory is high, which cannot digest the high inventory; In winter, the demand for cement has gradually weakened, and the amount of coal purchased from the market has decreased. The Bohai Rim port market continued to decline, traders' quotations fell slightly, downstream demand increased slightly, and inquiries were still dominated by price reduction, which was difficult to trade. It is worth noting that the cold wave is affecting our country from west to east, and the temperature in most parts of our country has changed from high to slightly lower or close to the same period of the year, and the demand for heating electricity in the downstream is expected to increase greatly, and the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces will exceed 2 million tons. However, due to the fact that the inventory of all links in the society and the supply of low-cost resources such as long-term agreements and imports are still at the high level of previous years, the power plant is in the stage of consuming inventory, resulting in no support for the rise in port coal prices.

It is the first half of winter, the downstream wait-and-see, the inquiry price is cold, and the actual transaction situation is not good; The available inventory of downstream power plants is still high, and the willingness to purchase is still negative. The only positive thing is that the arrival cost of Bohai Rim ports and sellers is high, and as the temperature gets colder, thermal coal procurement and consumption demand are also expected to grow. After small and medium-sized traders clear their warehouses and leave the market and the pressure is reduced, the market reluctance of major traders and mining enterprises to sell and raise prices may be rekindled, driving the decline in coal prices to narrow, or even rebound slightly.